The threat to world
Threats to World Trade
The rules-based system is in grave(Serious) danger
The rule based system is in jeopardy
TRUMP is hardly the first American president to slap(Slap) unilateral tariffs on imports. Every inhabitant of the Oval Office since Jimmy Carter has imposed
some kind of protectionist curbs（Restriction, transaction controlon trade, often on steel. Nor
will Mr Trump’s vow to put 25% tariffs on
steel and 10% on aluminium by themselves wreck
the economy: they account for 2% of last year’s $2.4trn of goods
imports, or 0.2% of GDP. If this were the extent of（…Degree) Mr Trump’s protectionism, it would
simply be an act of senseless self-harm.
In fact, it is a potential disaster—both for America and for the world economy.
Trump was not the first US president to unilaterally impose import duties. Since Carter, every host of the Oval Office has implemented some protectionist measures, usually aimed at the steel industry. TrumpOathExpropriation of iron and steel25%Tariffs on aluminum10%The tariff itself will not cause any damage to the economy: steel and aluminum account for only last year.1.4Trillions of American imports2%，occupyGDPA0.2%。If Trump’s protectionism goes so far, it would be a meaningless act of self mutilation. But in fact, this may be a disaster for the United States and the world economy.
Oval Office Office of the president of the United States
Presidents generally decorate the office to
suit their personal taste, choosing new furniture, new drapery, and designing
their own oval-shaped carpet to take up most of the floor.
The president of the United States will decorate his office in his own style, one of which is oval-shaped
carpet The oval carpet covered the whole ground. estimate oval office It was named because of the huge oval carpet
As yet it is unclear exactly what Mr Trump
will do (see Briefing). But the omens
are bad. Unlike his predecessors,
Mr Trump is a long-standing sceptic of
free trade. He has sneered at the multilateral trading system, which he sees as a bad deal for
America. His administration is chaotic, and Gary Cohn’s ominous(Unlucky) decision on March 6th to resign as the president’s chief economic adviser deprives
the White House of a rare free-trader, signalling that it has fallen
into protectionist hands. Not since its inception（Beginning) at the end of the second world war has the
global trading system faced such
It is not clear what Trump will do at the moment, butprospectIt’s not good. Unlike all previous US presidents, Trump has always been a champion of free trade.doubtAttitude. He was rightmultilateral trading systemSniff that the system has caused unfair treatment to the United States. His governmentout of place，And this month6Gary*Cohen made another decision which made people feel bad.WordsGo to the presidency of the president’s economic adviser. The White House has another one of the rare free trade supporters, suggesting that the government has become a protectionist world. The global trading system has never faced such a danger since the establishment of the Second World War.
Trade disorderly war
This danger has several dimensions. One is
the risk of tit-for-tatescalation. After the EU said
it would retaliate(Retaliate counterattack)with sanctions(Sanction) on American goods, including bourbon and
Harley- Davidson motorbikes, Mr Trump threatened exports of European cars.
There are several aspects of the danger. everythingAnswer blows with blowsRetaliatory actionupgradeRisk. stayEuropean UnionIt means to Polish American products such as Bourbon Whisky, Halley motorcycle and so on.Implement anti system measuresAfter that, Trump threatened to levy taxes on cars exported to the European Union.
The second danger springs from Mr
Trump’s rationale. The tariffs are based on a little-used law that lets a
president protect industry on grounds of national
security. That excuse is self-evidently spurious.
Most of America’s imports of steel come from Canada, the European Union, Mexico
and South Korea, America’s allies.
Canada and Mexico look set to be temporarily excluded—but
only because Mr Trump wants leverage in his renegotiation of the North American Free-Trade Agreement,
which has nothing to do with national security. Mr Trump is setting a precedent that other
countries are sure to exploit to protect their own producers, just as
The second danger comes from the basis of Trump’s action. The levy is based on a rare Law: the president can protect the industry on the ground of national security. thisReasonObviouslyUntenable。Most of the steel imported from the United States comes from its allies, such as Canada, the European Union, Mexico and South Korea. Canada and Mexico seem to be temporarily exempt, but this is only because Trump wants to renegotiate.《The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)happen now and thenThe chip is in the hand，There is no connection to national security. TrumpCreate a precedent，In the future, other countries will follow suit and protect their producers on the same grounds.
It is not clear whether other countries can
respond legally when national security is invoked in this way. This puts the
World Trade Organisation (WTO) into a rat trap. Either Mr Trump will
provoke a free-for-all(Scuffle) of recrimination
and that the WTO’s courts cannot adjudicate, or the courts
will second-guess(second-guessed) America’s national- security needs, in which case Mr Trump may storm out of the organisation
It is not clear whether the United States can resort to legal arbitration in the name of moving out of national security. World Trade OrganizationBe in an awkward situation。Either Trump will cause one anotherAccuseandComplexThe tribunal can not be ruled by the court of the WTO, or the court will criticize the national security needs of the United States.In the case, Trump may beExits angrilyThe organization.
Mr Trump has lobbed his grenade
as the WTO is already under strain. The collapse of the Doha
round of trade talks in 2015, after 14 fruitless years, put needed reforms
on hold indefinitely. Disputes that might have been swept into a new trade round have
fallen to the WTO’s dispute-resolution machinery(mechanism), which is too slow and too frail(Weak and fragile) to carry the burden. The WTO has not kept pace with economic
change. Investment is increasingly tied up in intangibles(Invisible), such as patents
and copyright, rather than physical assets, such as steel mills. Rules drafted for rich, market-led
economies cannot always police state capitalism. The implicit subsidies China gives
its producers were a cause of global gluts(Surplus) in industrial metals. No wonder that the world’s second-biggest
economy has been the focus of so much anger.
When WTO dropped this grenade, he suffered heavy pressure. after14After the fruitless talks in the year,2015yearDoha RoundRuptureThe necessary reforms are put on hold indefinitely。Some disputes may have entered a new round of trade negotiations. However, the WTO dispute settlement mechanism is too slow and fragile to bear the burden. The WTO did not keep pace with the pace of economic change. Investments are increasingly linked to intangible assets such as patents and copyrights, rather than steel mills.Tangible assets. Rules for market led rich economies do not always control state capitalism. China’s implicit subsidies to its producers are one of the reasons for the surplus of global industrial metals. No wonder the world’s second largest economyIt has become a target.
Whatever the WTO’s problems, it would be a tragedy to undermine(Destruction) it. If America pursues
a mercantilist（Mercantilism) trade
policy in defiance of the global trading
system, other countries are bound to follow. That might not lead to an
immediate collapse of the WTO, but it would gradually erode
one of the foundations of the globalised economy.
No matter what the WTO has,DestructionIt will all lead to a tragedy. If the United States disregards the global trading system, it followsmercantilismThe trade policy will be followed by other countries. This may not lead to an immediate collapse of WTO, but it will gradually erode the foundation of a globalized economy.
Everyone would suffer.
Mr Trump seems to think trade is a zero-sum affair, in which a deficit is a sign of a bad deal.
No one is better than a son.
Trump seems to think trade is a kind ofZero-sumActivity, and the deficit is a signal of bad trading.